Jerome model: Trump in Minnesota trails by a clear margin

The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 58.5% for Clinton and 41.5% for Trump in Minnesota.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they can contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, you should use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results vs. other econometric models

If we look at an average of Minnesota econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 55.1%. In comparison to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 3.5 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 4.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.8% in Minnesota. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 5.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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