Jerome model in Michigan: Clinton with comfortable lead

The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model's forecast is that Clinton will collect 55.1% of the two-party vote share in Michigan, whereas Trump will end up with 44.9%. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to collect only 44.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models can include substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 53.8% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Michigan. This value is 1.3 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 1.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.8% in Michigan. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 2.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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