The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model's forecast is that Clinton will collect 55.1% of the two-party vote share in Michigan, whereas Trump will end up with 44.9%. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to collect only 44.9% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models can include substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Clinton currently achieves 53.8% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Michigan. This value is 1.3 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 1.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.8% in Michigan. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 2.4 percentage points higher.