The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model expects that Clinton will achieve 55.1% of the two-party vote share in Michigan, while Trump will end up with 44.9%.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be interpreted with caution, as they often contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results vs. other econometric models
Clinton currently runs at 53.8% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Michigan. This value is 1.3 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.
The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote in Michigan, which is 1.3 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 2.3 percentage points higher.