The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 61.6% of the two-party vote share in Massachusetts, while Trump will end up with 38.4%. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 38.4% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models may incorporate substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Massachusetts has Clinton at 62.1% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.5 percentage points higher.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 2.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 63.6% in Massachusetts. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 8.9 percentage points higher.