Jerome model: Clinton with comfortable lead in Maine

The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 55.2% for Clinton and 44.8% for Trump in Maine.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not be overly confident the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Maine econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 55.4%. This value is 0.2 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.5% in Maine. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 2.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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