Iowa: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead

The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model forecasts that Clinton will achieve 54.3% of the two-party vote share in Iowa, whereas Trump will end up with 45.7%. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was still predicted to garner 0.0% of the vote.

Historically, Iowa has been a battleground state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. This is why predictions here are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, because they may incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, you should use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Iowa sees Clinton at 52.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.9 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 2.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 51.4% in Iowa. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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