The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 43.4% for Clinton and 56.6% for Trump in Indiana. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was predicted to achieve 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models often contain large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Trump currently runs at 57.3% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Indiana. Compared to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 0.7 percentage points higher.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 1.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 55.5% in Indiana. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 9.3 percentage points higher.