Jerome model in Idaho: Trump is in the lead

The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 32.1% for Clinton and 67.9% for Trump in Idaho. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was predicted to garner 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they often incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Idaho econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 68.8%. This value is 0.9 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 3.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 64.6% in Idaho. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 20.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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