The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 58.1% for Clinton and 41.9% for Trump in Hawaii.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, you should not be overly confident the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Hawaii sees Clinton at 64.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 6.0 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 67.8% of the two-party vote in Hawaii, which is 9.7 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 5.3 percentage points higher.