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Jerome model: Trump in Colorado trails by a moderate margin

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The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 53.7% for Clinton and 46.3% for Trump in Colorado. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 46.3% of the vote.

Historically, Colorado has been a purple state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. This is the reason why forecasts here are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they may contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Colorado sees Clinton at 52.0% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.7 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.4% in Colorado. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.0 percentage point higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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