Alaska: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead

The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to this model, Clinton will obtain 30.9% of the two-party vote share in Alaska, whereas Trump will end up with 69.1%. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Trump can currently count on 64.6% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Alaska. Relative to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 4.5 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 8.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 60.8% in Alaska. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 21.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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