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Jerome model in Alaska: Trump with very clear lead


The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model's forecast is that Clinton will collect 30.9% of the two-party vote share in Alaska, while Trump will end up with 69.1%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not be too confident the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Trump can currently count on 64.6% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Alaska. Relative to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 4.5 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 8.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 60.8% in Alaska. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 21.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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