The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will receive 45.6% of the two-party vote share in Alabama, while Trump will win 54.4%.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be regarded with caution, because they may contain substantial errors. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results vs. other econometric models
If we look at an average of Alabama econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 59.3%. This value is 4.9 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 5.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 60.2% in Alabama. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 7.2 percentage points higher.