Jerome model in Pennsylvania: Clinton is in the lead

The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to this model, Clinton will collect 53.5% of the two-party vote share in Pennsylvania, whereas Trump will win 46.5%.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models can include substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice is to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Pennsylvania sees Clinton at 51.9% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.6 percentage points lower.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.2% in Pennsylvania. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 0.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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