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Jerome model: Trump in Maine trails by a moderate margin

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The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 55.2% for Clinton and 44.8% for Trump in Maine. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was still predicted to collect 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they can contain large errors. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Maine sees Clinton at 55.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.2 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.5% in Maine. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 2.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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