Jerome model in Iowa: Clinton is in the lead

The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 54.3% for Clinton and 45.7% for Trump in Iowa.

Iowa is traditionally a swing state, where the two major political parties have historically gained similar voter support. This is why the election outcome here is regarded critical in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently runs at 52.4% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Iowa. This value is 1.9 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 2.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 51.4% in Iowa. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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