The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model predicts that Clinton will collect 53.3% of the two-party vote share in California, while Trump will end up with 46.7%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of California econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 56.6%. This value is 3.3 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 59.3% of the two-party vote in California, which is 6.0 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 0.5 percentage points higher.