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California: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead

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The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model predicts that Clinton will collect 53.3% of the two-party vote share in California, while Trump will end up with 46.7%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of California econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 56.6%. This value is 3.3 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 59.3% of the two-party vote in California, which is 6.0 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 0.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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