Jerome model: Trump trails by a very clear margin

The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 86.4% for Clinton and 13.6% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Clinton is currently at 89.2% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.8 percentage points higher.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 90.3% of the two-party vote, which is 3.9 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 33.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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