The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 43.0% of the two-party vote share in South Dakota, while Trump will win 57.0%. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was predicted to garner 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models often contain substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Trump currently runs at 59.6% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in South Dakota. Compared to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 2.6 percentage points better.
The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 2.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 59.3% in South Dakota. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 9.7 percentage points higher.