Jerome model in Louisiana: Trump with comfortable lead

The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 46.7% for Clinton and 53.3% for Trump in Louisiana. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to achieve 53.3% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they often incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Louisiana econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 57.5%. This value is 4.2 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 57.7% of the two-party vote in Louisiana, which is 4.4 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 6.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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