Jerome model: Clinton in Kansas trails by a clear margin

The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 43.8% for Clinton and 56.2% for Trump in Kansas.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they sometimes contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Kansas has Trump at 60.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 3.9 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 1.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.8% in Kansas. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 9.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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