Jerome model: Clinton in Indiana trails by a clear margin

The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to this model, Clinton will obtain 43.4% of the two-party vote share in Indiana, whereas Trump will win 56.6%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, one should not put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results vs. other econometric models

If we look at an average of Indiana econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 57.3%. This value is 0.7 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 55.5% of the two-party vote in Indiana, which is 1.1 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 9.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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