Jerome model: Clinton in Idaho trails by a very clear margin

The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model forecasts that Clinton will garner 32.1% of the two-party vote share in Idaho, while Trump will win 67.9%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they sometimes contain large errors. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 68.8% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Idaho. Compared to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 0.9 percentage points higher.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 3.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 64.6% in Idaho. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 20.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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