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Jerome model in Arkansas: Trump is in the lead

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The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model predicts that Clinton will obtain 48.1% of the two-party vote share in Arkansas, while Trump will win 51.9%. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to achieve 51.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, as they may contain substantial errors. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Arkansas has Trump at 58.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 6.6 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 5.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.0% in Arkansas. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 4.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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