The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model predicts that Clinton will obtain 48.1% of the two-party vote share in Arkansas, while Trump will win 51.9%. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to achieve 51.9% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, as they may contain substantial errors. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Arkansas has Trump at 58.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 6.6 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 5.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.0% in Arkansas. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 4.6 percentage points higher.