Jerome model in Arizona: Trump with clear lead

The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 42.8% for Clinton and 57.2% for Trump in Arizona. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to win 57.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice is to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Arizona sees Trump at 57.3% of the two-party vote. Compared to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 0.1 percentage points higher.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in Arizona, which is 3.1 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 9.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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