Jerome model in Alabama: Trump with comfortable lead

The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 45.6% for Clinton and 54.4% for Trump in Alabama. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was predicted to gain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, one should not have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently runs at 59.3% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Alabama. This value is 4.9 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 60.2% of the two-party vote in Alabama, which is 5.8 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 7.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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