Jérôme & Jérôme model: Clinton tied with Trump
The Jérôme & Jérôme model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a tie, with both Clinton and Trump receiving 50% of the two-party vote. In comparison, on August 3, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 49.9% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 1.3 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 1.3 percentage points.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
Clinton has 2.4 percentage points less and Trump has 2.4 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.