The Issues and Leaders model enters the index models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.9% for Clinton and 48.1% for Trump. In comparison, on August 3 Trump was still predicted to collect 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models may incorporate large errors, and should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single index models, we recommend to rely on combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
Results in comparison to other index models
When compared to the average results of other index models Clinton performed worse with 1.7 percentage points, while Trump did better with 1.7 percentage points.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
Clinton has 0.6 percentage points less and Trump has 0.6 percentage points more when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.