Issues and Leaders model: Clinton with small lead

The Issues and Leaders model enters the index models component of the PollyVote. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 52.3% for Clinton and 47.7% for Trump. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 51.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual index models should be treated with caution, since they often include substantial biases. Instead of relying on results from single index models, one should consult combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

Results compared to other index models

In comparison to the average results of other index models Clinton performed worse with 1.6 percentage points, while Trump did better with 1.6 percentage points.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

Clinton has 0.5 percentage points less and Trump has 0.5 percentage points more when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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