The Issues and Leaders model enters the index models component of the PollyVote. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 52.3% for Clinton and 47.7% for Trump. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 51.9% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models should be treated with caution, since they often include substantial biases. Instead of relying on results from single index models, one should consult combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
Results compared to other index models
In comparison to the average results of other index models Clinton performed worse with 1.6 percentage points, while Trump did better with 1.6 percentage points.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
Clinton has 0.5 percentage points less and Trump has 0.5 percentage points more when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.