Issue-index model: Clinton with clear lead

The Issue-index model is captured in the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to this model, Clinton will garner 55.3% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 44.7%. In comparison, on August 3 Trump was still predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single index models often contain large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single index models, the recommended strategy look at combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other index models

When compared to the average results of other index models Clinton performed better with 1.7 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 1.7 percentage points.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

Clinton has 2.8 percentage points more and Trump has 2.8 percentage points less when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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