Issue-index model: Clinton is in the lead

The Issue-index model provided an updated prediction of the election result. The model expects that Clinton will achieve 55.4% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 44.6%. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was still predicted to win 44.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. In general, you should not rely too much on the results of an individual index model. At least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other index models

In comparison to the average results of other index models Clinton performed better with 1.6 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 1.6 percentage points.

The Issue-index model compared with PollyVote's prediction

Clinton has 2.7 percentage points more and Trump has 2.7 percentage points less when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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