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Putting the results in context

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The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model expects that Clinton will collect 50.6% of the two-party vote share in Iowa, whereas Trump will end up with 49.4%.

Historically, Iowa has been a purple state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. Therefore, predictions here are of particular interest.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they sometimes contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Iowa has Clinton at 52.5% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.9 percentage points better.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 51.4% in Iowa. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 2.2 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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