Jerome model in Illinois: Clinton with comfortable lead

The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 54.4% for Clinton and 45.6% for Trump in Illinois.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be treated with caution, as they often include large biases. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, we recommend to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently runs at 54.0% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Illinois. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.4 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 57.3% of the two-party vote in Illinois, which is 2.9 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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