DeSart model in Illinois: Clinton with comfortable lead

The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to this model, Clinton will achieve 53.6% of the two-party vote share in Illinois, while Trump will win 46.4%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they can incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton can currently count on 54.0% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Illinois. In comparison to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.4 percentage points higher.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 3.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.3% in Illinois. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 0.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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