Jerome model in Hawaii: Clinton with clear lead

The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model's forecast is that Clinton will obtain 58.1% of the two-party vote share in Hawaii, while Trump will win 41.9%. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 41.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they sometimes contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Hawaii sees Clinton at 64.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 6.0 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 9.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 67.8% in Hawaii. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 5.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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