DeSart model: Trump in Hawaii trails by a very clear margin

The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model predicts that Clinton will receive 70.1% of the two-party vote share in Hawaii, while Trump will win 29.9%.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be regarded with caution, as they often include large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Hawaii econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 64.1%. This value is 6.0 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 67.8% of the two-party vote in Hawaii, which is 2.3 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 17.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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