Results of a new poll carried out by Harper (R)Harper (R) were released. The poll asked interviewees from Colorado for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Colorado is traditionally a purple state, where the two major political parties have historically gained similar levels of voter support. This is the reason why the election outcome here is regarded important in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
Harper (R)Harper (R) poll results
The poll was conducted from July 7 to July 9 among 500 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, because they may incorporate substantial errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 45.8% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
When compared to the average results of other polls Clinton performed worse with 45.1 percentage points, while Trump did better with 45.1 percentage points. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier. The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 46.9% and Trump % of the two-party vote in Colorado.