Georgia: New JMC Analytics*JMC Analytics* poll shows Trump behind by 7 points
By JMC AnalyticsJMC Analytics released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Georgia were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
JMC AnalyticsJMC Analytics poll results
According to the results, 44.0% of interviewees intend to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 37.0% intend to give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 6 to August 7. A total of 615 likely voters responded. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-4.0 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, one should not be too confident the results of an individual poll. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 54.3% for Clinton and 45.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Georgia polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 48.6%. Compared to her numbers in the JMC AnalyticsJMC Analytics poll Clinton's poll average is 5.7 percentage points lower. This margin is outside the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 48.0% of the two-party vote in Georgia. Hence, Polly's prediction is 6.3 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this deviation is significant.
