Atlanta Journal-ConstitutionAJC released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Georgia were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Atlanta Journal-ConstitutionAJC poll results
Of those who replied, 44.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from August 1 to August 4, among a random sample of 847 registered voters. If one accounts for the poll's error margin of +/-4.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not be overly confident the results of a single poll. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, one should rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 52.4% for Clinton and 47.6% for Trump. In the most recent Atlanta Journal-ConstitutionAJC poll on August 7 Clinton received only 47.6%, while Trump received only 0.0%.
Results compared to other polls
If we look at an average of Georgia polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 48.6%. Relative to her numbers in the Atlanta Journal-ConstitutionAJC poll Clinton's poll average is 3.8 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 47.4% of the two-party vote in Georgia. This means that Polly's forecast is 5.0 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this difference is significant.