Jerome model: Trump with small lead in Georgia

The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 47.6% for Clinton and 52.4% for Trump in Georgia. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be interpreted with caution, since they often contain substantial biases. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump can currently count on 54.5% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Georgia. Relative to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 2.1 percentage points better.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 0.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 52.6% in Georgia. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 5.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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