The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model predicts that Clinton will achieve 47.6% of the two-party vote share in Georgia, while Trump will win 52.4%.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be interpreted with caution, since they can include substantial biases. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Georgia has Trump at 54.5% of the two-party vote. Compared to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 2.1 percentage points better.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote in Georgia, which is 0.2 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 5.2 percentage points higher.