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DeSart model in Georgia: Trump with clear lead

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The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model forecasts that Clinton will receive 43.4% of the two-party vote share in Georgia, while Trump will end up with 56.6%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they often contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Georgia econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 54.5%. Relative to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 2.1 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 4.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 52.6% in Georgia. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 9.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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