Results of a new poll carried out by Atlanta Journal-ConstitutionAJC were spread. The poll asked participants from Georgia for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Atlanta Journal-ConstitutionAJC poll results
According to the results, 44.0% of participants will cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% will cast a ballot for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between August 1 and August 4. The sample size was 847 registered voters. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-4.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 52.4% for Clinton and 47.6% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Georgia polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 48.6%. Relative to her numbers in the Atlanta Journal-ConstitutionAJC poll Clinton's poll average is 3.8 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 48.0% of the two-party vote in Georgia. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 4.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.