JMC AnalyticsJMC Analytics released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Florida were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Historically, Florida has been a battleground state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. Hence, forecasts in this state are of particular importance.
JMC AnalyticsJMC Analytics poll results
The poll was conducted from July 9 to July 10 among 700 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, since they often include large biases. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 52.8% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump. On July 12 Clinton received only 47.2% in the JMC AnalyticsJMC Analytics poll and Trump received 52.8%.
Results in comparison to other polls
In comparison to the average results of other polls Clinton performed better with 48.4 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 48.4 percentage points. The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 49.4% and Trump % of the two-party vote in Florida.