Latest NBC/WSJ/MaristNBC/WSJ/Marist poll in Florida: Trump trails by a significant margin
By NBC/WSJ/MaristNBC/WSJ/Marist published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Florida were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Florida is traditionally a battleground state, where the GOP and the Democrats have historically achieved similar levels of support among voters. This is why the election outcome here is considered critical in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
NBC/WSJ/MaristNBC/WSJ/Marist poll results
Of those who responded, 44.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 37.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between July 5 and July 11. The sample size was 871 registered voters. If one accounts for the poll's margin of error of +/-3.3 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 54.3% for Clinton and 45.7% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 50.6% of the two-party vote in Florida. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 3.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.
