JMC AnalyticsJMC Analytics published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Florida were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Florida is traditionally a swing state, where the Democrats and the GOP have historically gained similar voter support. This is the reason why the election outcome in that state is regarded critical in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
JMC AnalyticsJMC Analytics poll results
According to the results, 42.0% of participants will give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 47.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 9 to July 10. A total of 700 likely voters responded. The margin of error is +/-3.7 points, which means that the poll results for Clinton and Trump do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, as they may incorporate substantial biases. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the recommended strategy consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 47.2% for Clinton and 52.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Florida sees Trump at 48.4% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the JMC AnalyticsJMC Analytics poll Trump's poll average is 4.4 percentage points worse. This margin is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 49.4% of the two-party vote in Florida. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 3.4 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this deviation is insignificant.