Results of a new poll administered by Suffolk UniversitySuffolk University were released. The poll asked interviewees from Florida for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
In Florida, the election outcome is often decided by a narrow margin. This is why the state is commonly referred to as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Suffolk UniversitySuffolk University poll results
The poll was conducted from August 1 to August 3 among 500 likely voters. Given the poll's sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may incorporate large biases, and should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 46.7% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
When compared to the average results of other polls Clinton performed worse with 48.4 percentage points, while Trump did better with 48.4 percentage points. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier. The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 49.4% and Trump % of the two-party vote in Florida.