The Fiscal model model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will receive 48.2% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 51.8%. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to achieve 51.8% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, one should not be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, we recommend to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 0.6 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.6 percentage points.
The Fiscal model model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
Clinton has 4.6 percentage points less and Trump has 4.6 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.