Fair model: Trump is in the lead

The Fair model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 44.0% for Clinton and 56.0% for Trump. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was predicted to garner 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't have too much confidence in the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, you should rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 4.8 percentage points, while Trump did better with 4.8 percentage points.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

Clinton has 8.8 percentage points less and Trump has 8.8 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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