EmersonEmerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Connecticut were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
EmersonEmerson poll results
The results show that 48.0% of respondents will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between April 10 and April 11. The sample size was 1043 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.0 points, which means that the poll results for the candidates of both parties differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can incorporate large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 54.6% for Clinton and 45.5% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 54.4% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Connecticut. Relative to her numbers in the EmersonEmerson poll Clinton's poll average is 0.2 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. The results are consistent with the prediction from PollyVote for Connecticut. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.